April 8, 2010
The Next Big Thing?
Some say it’s just a jumbo iPhone, while others predict it will change the face of both publishing and portable computing. But how will the iPad play in Japan?
By Metropolis
Originally published on metropolis.co.jp on April 2010
Path to the iPad…
1984 - Apple Macintosh
1993 - Newton
1998 - iMac
2007 - iPod Touch
2010 - iPad
Unless you’ve been living under a rock—or perhaps in one of those really “quiet” parts of Shikoku—you’ll know that this year’s hottest tech ticket in gadgetland is the shiny new tablet computer from Apple, known to its nearest and dearest as the iPad.
The simple fact that its family members include the iPhone and iPod means the newcomer is guaranteed a warm welcome at the hands of shoppers worldwide—this much we know already. But how will it fare in Japan?
Whether potential purchasers consider the iPad as just a sparky little computer with a twist or—at least as likely—a handy e-book for consuming digital literature, it will be put to uses already familiar to many.
On the computing front, it’ll be competing for a chunk of a month’s salary with similarly priced netbook PCs, while the electronic book angle could see it vying not with the Kindle and its ilk, but with Japan’s tremendously popular keitai shousetsu, or cellphone novels.
To find out more, we spoke with a few seasoned tech observers to see what they make of the shiny chunk of glass and plastic we just know will be gracing every Starbucks in Tokyo within weeks (at press time, Apple HQ in Cupertino has yet to confirm when they’ll deign to deliver the iPad to Japan).
Before that, though, let’s get a few of the basics out of the way. The first-generation iPad will be available in two flavors—either with or without a 3G cellphone data connection—and come with a choice of 16, 32 or 64GB of flash memory. Naturally, the price goes up accordingly, with the most basic model starting at $499 in the US—the only country we currently have pricing for. Our best guess is that the 16GB Wi-Fi-only iPad will sell for around ¥55,000 here, whenever it arrives.
However—and this part is likely to make a huge difference to Japanese shoppers—there will certainly be other options from third parties. Most significantly, we expect to see the thrusting young bucks at Emobile do what they’ve been doing so successfully with netbook PCs: offering a steeply discounted Wi-Fi iPad to anyone signing a two-year deal for one of their wireless data cards. That combo will most likely be one of Emobile’s Pocket WiFi dongles, which essentially create a portable wireless hotspot for any Wi-Fi device to tap into and zip online. At ¥5,980 a month for unlimited 7.2Mbps downloads, it’s still not cheap, so the actual selling price of that subsidized iPad will need to be pretty low to push waverers over the edge.
For what it’s worth, electronics vendors like Bic Camera typically bundle the Pocket WiFi with an iPod touch from around ¥1,000 up front—not to be sniffed at, but the two years of Emobile service will still run you well over ¥100,000.
Of course, the other variable in this equation remains entirely unknown: which of the big three Japanese cellular carriers will carry the 3G iPad. Given that Softbank is currently the sole Apple partner selling the iPhone in Japan, it’s a reasonable bet that it will grab the 3G iPad too. Still, our quiet inquiries at the House of Son were met with an all-too-believable, “We really don’t know what’s going to happen.” That’s Apple for you.
Putting aside conjecture about the cost of our shiny new lust-bauble—and we’re not even mentioning accessories yet—it’s already clear that the iPad has stirred up feelings aplenty, and roused opinion in some unexpected quarters.
From designers keen to get all artsy on the tablet to publishers wary about what a compelling color e-book reader like the iPad will do to their business, there’s no shortage of talking points surrounding the newcomer.
More on those later, but first let’s hear from the people who really grasp at least the initial impact the device is likely to make—Tokyo’s geeks and tech experts.
Technology consultant @stevenagata
Steve Nagata
Tell us about the blogging party you held for the iPad announcement in January—wasn’t it a little, um, unusual for a new gadget launch?
Obviously, there is a strong following of technology enthusiasts in Tokyo. While this event may seem a bit unusual, it’s hardly unique. In fact, overnight lines [outside shops] and late-night parties are quite common, not only for Apple products, but also for practically any major product launch.
What do you plan to use your iPad for the most or is it too early to tell? We’re assuming you’ll be getting one!
I actually have two on order from the States right now.
I’m very excited about the device, but I think there are still a few important things we don’t know. As a new device, we have yet to see how it will fit into the Apple lineup, what type of strategy Apple has for it, and what developers will do with the new capabilities.
I think two areas to watch will be digital publishing and gaming. There is a huge amount of potential here, but it will be up to developers to fully realize the capabilities, as was the case with the iPhone.
We’re guessing you already have an iPhone. Does that mean the 3G iPad is out of the question because of the redundancy of paying for two data plans?
Actually, I have two iPhones, as well as a Nexus One and a Nokia E90, so I’m not totally with you on redundancy! I’ve ordered a 16GB Wi-Fi model, so I can get an early evaluator for the platform, and am also thinking of picking up a 3G model later, but that will depend on pricing and plan details.
What’s missing from it that you’d hoped for, realistic or otherwise?
A camera. I understand that the camera is not necessary for the vision that Apple has for the device, but, for example, accelerometers in phones were never really considered necessary until a few developers came up with some interesting hacks. There still is wiggle room there for it to be introduced in later versions, and I get the feeling Apple will have to do this.
Lecturer and tech journalist @nobi
Nobi Hayashi
Why such buzz about the iPad? Isn’t it just a big iPod touch?
I’ve already given several talks about the iPad to different types of audiences, and the diversity of their reactions was quite interesting. Beforehand, many of the tech-oriented people were indeed disappointed that it seemed to be just a bigger iPod touch. But as I explained what a big difference the screen size can make to elements such as typing comfort, reduced view-switching, less need to zoom in on web pages, and the like, most of them soon came around. Interestingly, some older iPhone users were also keen on the bigger screen size.
Do you think the iPad and the iBooks app will help the fledgling e-book market in Japan?Does Amazon need to worry about its Kindle or Sony about its Reader?
About half of the newspaper managers I’ve spoken with are both excited and afraid of the device. Most of the book publishers I chatted with about it are very confused and troubled by the change that is about to come.
Personally, I think it will most certainly help the magazine industry because the attractive color display will make it easier for them to distribute their magazines electronically.
Most Japanese newspaper companies think this is the year to transition to electronic distribution, so the iPad comes at just the right time for them. And because of the big success of the iPhone here in Japan, I think many of them are betting their future on the iPad rather than the Kindle (which doesn’t support Japanese yet anyway).
However, they’re worried because they don’t know how much it will cost to make the electronic versions of their newspapers and how they should change their workflow to accommodate them.
So, the iPad is a nailed-on winner when it comes to publishing here?
Well, there are two serious problems. In the Japanese publishing business, the distribution setup known as toritsugi dictates which books get prominence and, therefore, become bestsellers. But if the iPad and electronic distribution come to prominence, then the toritsugi distributors will lose their role almost overnight. So, although some publishers are excited about e-publishing, they can’t say so in public while print is still generating more money.
Another problem is the copyright issue. In Japan, the copyright and reprint rights of a book belong to the author. So if a publisher wants to make the e-version of a bestseller, they need to get permission from the author. If the author chooses to go it alone and publish the e-book himself for a far larger slice of the profit, the publisher will lose their role.
Photographer and designer www.forbiddencolour.com
Andrew Pothecary
For a designer, the iPad might fall between two stools: the iPhone and the computer. Apple computers are famous for designer-use, but you generally need a large screen to work effectively.
Having said that, the iPhone is good for snapping photos and videos and for being just large enough for some quirky creativity, like The New Yorker’s celebrated iPhone illustrations, for which a small screen doesn’t matter.
Still, the iPad has no camera, and while you may be able to doodle artistically via whichever app, I can’t see the necessity for that intermediate-size screen. You can’t design on it, so in a way it feels like Apple’s first non-designer-oriented computer. It may be a possible step towards new approaches to portable computer use—for example, reading magazines rather than magazines-on-the-web; presentations; portable gaming; word processing—but not designing.
Also, the iPad would initially seem like a good portfolio or storage device for photographs, but you can’t use Photoshop on it with ease. In that case, it’ll just be a storage device with a display. Not a bad idea… except that there isn’t that much storage space. So, again, it seems to fall between stools: perfect for displaying some of your work, but not for storing a big portfolio or for fiddling around with images.
A part of the design future might be designing for the iPad if magazines really migrate to it, but I don’t imagine we’ll be designing on the iPad.
So would I be excited by designing for it? At the moment, I feel curious but not excited. I’ll have to wait and see how it’s used. It’s somewhat odd that, even though the iPad’s design seems so out of the ordinary, it might wind up being a product more for the regular computer user.
Clearly, Apple’s latest object of desire is going to be just as successful as everything else in the company’s recent past, but two major questions stand out: will it really become the mass-market handy computer its creators hope for; and, can it possibly usher in the mainstreaming of e-books and effect genuine change in publishing?
If, as many observers fervently believe, the iPad does indeed become the platform of choice for forward-thinking publishers, we can expect to see creativity come to the fore. After all, the time-honored model of content—whether it’s words in a novel or a feature story in a magazine like the one you’re holding—flowing straight from one page to the next no longer need hold back book and magazine designers.
Instead, the animation, music, spoken word and everything else so refreshingly non-linear in the storytelling process that the iPad offers could mean designers are restricted only by what they can imagine. On the other hand, if this kind of new media on the iPad ends up being a huge bust, there’s always gaming to fill up those shiny black oblongs—we hear the kids just love Doodle Jump and Flight Control.
Official iPad site: www.apple.com/jp/ipad
Apple’s e-publishing: http://meturl.com/ibooks
Launch announcement meeting in Harajuku: http://meturl.com/ipadmeet
The New Yorker iPhone art: http://meturl.com/nyer
Mark Hiratsuka is Metropolis‘ technology editor and a director at mobile marketing specialist Snapp Media (snapp.jp)
