Originally published on metropolis.co.jp on May 2013
Japan will face Australia at Saitama Stadium on June 4 in their penultimate World Cup qualifying match, needing only a point to confirm their ticket to the 2014 FIFA World Cup in Brazil. Following the Australia game, Japan will travel to Doha in Qatar to face Iraq in their final match. In all probability, the Iraq game won’t mean anything for Japan—but might mean a lot for Iraq. The Middle Eastern nation will probably need to win its remaining three games—against Oman and Australia as well as Japan—to qualify. Japan may see the opportunity for revenge, as it was a last-minute goal by Iraq 20 years ago—the “tragedy in Doha”—that stopped Japan qualifying for the 1994 World Cup.
While Japan theoretically needs a point to confirm their spot in Brazil, they are in such a superior position in their group it would take a miracle to deny them—even if they lose their two remaining matches. Japan sits on top of Group B in the final round of Asian qualifiers with 13 points, a healthy +10 goal difference and two games to play. They are followed by Jordan (seven points, –6, two games to play), Australia (six points, 0, three games), Oman (six points, -3, two games) and Iraq (five points, -1, three games).
Oman definitely can’t catch Japan and Jordan can only do it in the unlikely even that they score 17 goals and concede none in their two remaining games (based on the current table). Realistically, only Australia and Iraq can catch Japan. But it’s almost impossible for both of them to do so. If Australia beats Japan on June 4 and Jordan on June 11, and Iraq beats Oman and Japan on the same dates, then Japan will still have 13 points, Australia will have 12 points and Iraq 11. But in the final round of matches on June 18, Australia will face Iraq, meaning only one of the two teams has a chance of leapfrogging Japan.
Thus, Japan is virtually certain to claim one of the automatic qualifying positions in the group. So the race for second is proving more interesting—and even the third-placed team could get to Brazil via a play-off.
Japan were prevented from qualifying on March 26 by Jordan, who upset them to win 2-1 in Amman. Jordan also proved too plucky for Australia last year. The Aussies have had their usual confidence hit by that loss and by draws against Japan and Oman (twice) and will be desperate not to drop a point in Saitama. They will be helped by the fact that coach Holger Osieck used to work in Japan—in fact, in Saitama for the Urawa Reds—and the dent in Japan’s confidence after the loss to Jordan.
On the plus side for Japan, talismanic attacker Keisuke Honda will return after missing the game in Amman. Honda may not be captain, but he is the de facto leader of the team and critical in scoring and setting up goals. Full-back Yuto Nagatomo of Inter Milan is also likely to be back in the team.
Motivation shouldn’t be a problem for either side. The Aussies need a result to help qualify and they still haven’t repaid Japan for their 1-0 extra-time loss in the final of the 2011 Asian Cup (itself payback for Australia’s 3-1 win over Japan in the 2006 World Cup). But Japan would like to clinch qualification at home and in style, and they need to deliver a positive performance after their tepid display in Amman.
Saitama Stadium on June 4 is sure to turn into a pressure cooker for this crunch game.
